The UFC will return to Australia on Saturday with its second 2025 pay-per-view card. The main event is a bout for the middleweight title between Sean Strickland and Dricus Du Plessis.
I offer some thorough odds analysis and predictions for UFC 312. There are several competitive fights on the schedule, and fans may place some excellent bets on how the action will play out.
Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 predictions and analysis
One of the hardest title fights to predict in recent memory is Saturday’s UFC main event. Fans worldwide were divided on who should have been crowned the winner after five exhausting rounds when these two men faced off nearly exactly a year ago.
Is it possible for either boxer to win the rematch with ease?
There’s no denying that Dricus Du Plessis has the advantage. He just had his best performance to date against Israel Adesanya. Dricus demonstrated in that fight the precise abilities required to overcome a hard-charging boxer such as Sean Strickland.
On Saturday, I think Du Plessis will try to grapple frequently and early. With six takedowns in five rounds, he demonstrated his superiority as a grappler in the first bout. Dricus was able to interrupt Sean’s striking with the continual threat of takedowns, but he was never able to hold him down for long.
Dricus’s jiu-jitsu abilities are incredibly underappreciated. Eleven of his 24 career victories have been via submission. There is a good chance that Du Plessis will get Strickland to the canvas and grip onto a choke if he decides to concentrate more on the grappling this time.
Training videos show Strickland suffering on the mats against strong wrestlers, despite the fact that he has never tapped out as a professional.
At 185 pounds, Dricus is among the strongest combatants. He may seize a guillotine as the bout continues, giving Sean his first professional submit loss.
Dricus Du Plessis via fourth-round submission (+700 at FanDuel Sportsbook) is the official prediction.
UFC 312: Undercard predictions and best bets
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Jimmy Crute to win: +140 at
BetMGM Sportsbook
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Tom Noland to win: +118 at
FanDuel Sportsbook
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Jake Matthews to win: -225 at
DraftKings Sportsbook
The greatest names in MMA aren’t always on Saturday’s UFC show. Nonetheless, there are many exciting bouts amongst competitors eager to place in the top-10 of their respective divisions.
The 28-year-old Jimmy Crute is one warrior to watch. He told the media that he wanted time to concentrate on his personal life, which is why he hasn’t been active since 2023.
Crute’s record of 0-3-1 in his last four fights does not accurately represent his mixed martial arts prowess. He is incredibly well-rounded and might be more focused going into this fight. Rodolfo Bellato, a former LFA champion with a 12-2 MMA record, is on his way.
Watch for Crute to remain upright and use forceful blows to dismantle Bellato. Especially as the bout progresses into later rounds, he is the superior boxer and possesses all the abilities necessary to win by knockout.
Another underdog that is being closely watched by gamblers is Tom Noland. When he made his UFC debut in early 2024, he was among Australia’s best prospects.
Noland is genuinely exceptional and possesses the ground abilities to defeat Viacheslav Borshchev, a pure striker, throughout this bout, even if he lost 2-1 in the promotion.
Jake Matthews, a veteran of Australian mixed martial arts, will also return to the cage on Saturday. Despite alternating between victories and defeats over his UFC career, he has consistently been a must-watch on television.
On Saturday, he is the favorite and should defeat Francisco Prado, a 22-year-old fighter with a 1-2 UFC record, via decision.
Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 moneyline analysis
Caesars Sportsbook is the source of the odds listed here.
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Dricus Du Plessis: -210
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Sean Strickland: +175
Two of the top middleweights on the UFC roster will rematch in Saturday’s main event. The oddsmakers had Dricus Du Plessis as the -210 favorite to win this weekend after he defeated Strickland by a slim margin last year.
The fact that Dricus is listed as the favorite here is hardly shocking.
With victories against some of the best competitors in the UFC, including Robert Whittaker, Israel Adesanya, and Sean Strickland, the South African boasts an 8-0 record. Despite having a somewhat unconventional style, he is resilient and talented enough to consistently win.
Since losing to Du Plessis last year, Strickland has only engaged in one bout. He defeated fellow striker Paulo Costa in that fight with a largely boring decision. Sean has demonstrated certain weaknesses in his grappling throughout the years, but he uses his boxing quite well.
Sean is not a huge underdog at +175. To regain the middleweight title, he will have to improve on some of his wrestling shortcomings.
Why Du Plessis could win as the favorite
Atbet365 Sportsbook’s best odds are -200.
In 2020, Du Plessis made his UFC debut as the EFC middleweight champion. Before landing his first title fight in January 2024, he had amassed a string of victories in the promotion.
Taking advantage of the situation, Dricus defeated Sean Strickland by a narrow decision. Since then, he has stood up for the belt against Israel Adesanya.
During his MMA career, Du Plessis has demonstrated a variety of skills. Dricus has no trouble dragging his opponents to the mat to look for submissions if he is being thrashed on the feet.
Dricus will probably try to grapple in this battle because Strickland is probably the superior fighter. In the first bout, he used wrestling to some degree of success against Strickland, and I anticipate that he will use those talents even more this time.
Dricus can’t let himself engage Strickland in a boxing battle. In the first fight, he stumbled into the trap and barely managed to get out of it with the decision. He should make an effort to be within kicking range while on his feet. He can aim for the legs and try to get a choke when takedowns are possible.
Why Strickland could win as the underdog
The best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook are +170.
Another unconventional fighter in the UFC is Strickland. He like to stay within boxing range to use his jabs to tear apart his opponents round after round, making him nearly entirely a striker.
In the initial battle, same tactic worked against Du Plessis. Many believed that Strickland had done enough to merit the decision win, and Dricus had some serious facial injuries after five rounds.
However, it was in the grappling area where Sean found it difficult. He was defeated multiple times by Dricus. After five close rounds, this is probably what caused him to lose the decision.
Strickland ought to try to use the same tactic in the first battle. He is a skilled fighter who, if he stays within hitting range, may hit Du Plessis with heavy blows all night long.
The last thing Strickland needs is to be taken down. Over the past year, he has probably put a lot of effort into improving his wrestling. In the event that he is defeated, he will have to make every effort to get back up and carry on with his boxing clinic.
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