This afternoon, the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City will play the San Francisco 49ers, whom it defeated in Super Bowl 58, in the greatest game of the regular season thus far.
Kansas City (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) entered its off week with a number of its best players out by injuries. However, with quarterback Patrick Mahomes remaining in the lineup, Kansas City is undoubtedly one of the hardest teams to defeat.
Key player injuries have also been a problem for San Francisco (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS), but they haven’t handled them well. RB Christian McCaffrey has yet to play and is probably not going to do so against Kansas City.
San Francisco is listed as a tiny favorite by the top sports betting apps, but since the 49ers are the home team, they are given the benefit of the doubt. Here are our NFL Week 7 predictions and top picks for Kansas City vs. the 49ers.
Kansas City vs. 49ers Prediction
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Kansas City +1.5 (
-110 at BetMGM
)
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Under 47.5 points (
-110 at FanDuel
)
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JuJu Smith-Schuster Over 3.5 receptions (
-163 at Caesars
)
Two teams from different conferences seldom play together as frequently as these clubs with the same coaching staff in the NFL’s dynamic environment. When Kansas City travels to San Francisco this afternoon, that’s what we got.
Since 2018, these teams have faced off four times, including in two Super Bowls, with Andy Reid coaching Kansas City and Kyle Shanahan coaching the 49ers. All four games have been won by Reid and Kansas City.
The victories, which have averaged 11.5 points, have also been convincing. Last season’s Super Bowl, which Kansas City won 25–22 in overtime, had the closest finish.
In the three games prior to Super Bowl 58, Kansas City scored 38, 31, and 44 points without any problems against San Francisco’s defense. Why, then, would we suggest the Under in this weekend’s game?
We turn to the Kansas City defense for that. The run game has been KC’s greatest defensive vulnerability in past games. This season, Kansas City has improved in that area and has a strong chance of restricting the 49ers’ best—or desired best—strategy.
The Kansas City offense is next. They brought back WR JuJu Smith-Schuster and RB Kareem Hunt since they are missing so many important offensive players. It will be more difficult versus San Francisco, even if Mahomes’ team performed well against the Saints in their most recent game two weeks ago.
Kansas City is going back to their 2-3 tight end configurations due to personnel losses. San Francisco is qualified to defend that personnel grouping under the leadership of LB Fred Warner.
Patrick Mahomes always manages to win even when we want to count him out because he is lacking players. If that happens again, don’t be shocked, but don’t anticipate a shootout.
Smith-Schuster is back in the spotlight as WR1 after Rashee Rice and Marquise Hollywood Brown were sidelined for the season. He caught seven passes on eight targets for 130 yards in his first complete game in that role against New Orleans.
Smith-Schuster plays a vital role for the Kansas City offense even if he is no longer at the top of his game. For the offense to remain balanced, Mahomes needs to get him the ball.
Kansas City vs. 49ers moneyline odds analysis
Why San Francisco could win as the favorite
The best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook are -116.
Even though Kansas City has dominated the 49ers in recent years, the 49ers are by no means a laughing stock. It makes sense to believe that San Francisco can overcome Reid at last. There’s a reason the 49ers are the game’s favorite.
With more preparation time, the formidable defense may be able to contain Kansas City’s offense. The coaching staff has nine days instead of six since San Francisco played on Thursday Night Football last week.
In keeping with that, the 49ers staff is aware that Kansas City’s run defense is stronger this year and will surprise their attack. In a close game, that will increase the home crowd, which might be sufficient to give San Francisco the victory.
Why Kansas City could win as the underdog
The best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook are +102.
The fact that Kansas City has a superior run defense and that the 49ers might be in the game is fantastic for their aspirations. Reid is possibly the greatest coach in NFL history, even after a bye week.
Reid’s record after a bye is 21-4 overall, including 20-2 when his side is coming off a bye while the opposition is not.
With so many starters out of the lineup, do you think Reid won’t have something in store for the offense? Take advantage of this chance to wager on Kansas City as the underdog.
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