A new study released this week highlights an alarming trend: as global temperatures rise, the size and intensity of hailstorms, especially in the eastern U.S., are expected to increase. According to research published in the Nature journal npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, hailstones could become larger and more destructive in the coming years.
The study analyzed past hailstorms and projected future scenarios based on potential greenhouse gas emissions. Two possible outcomes were modeled, revealing that higher emissions lead to larger hailstones, particularly in the worst-case scenario.
Victor Gensini, a meteorologist and associate professor at Northern Illinois University, explains that hailstones larger than two inches will likely grow even bigger as emissions rise. Warmer temperatures fuel more updrafts in thunderstorms, which are essential for producing larger hail. While smaller hail may melt in warmer air before reaching the ground, larger hailstones, which fall faster, will remain mostly unaffected.
Hail forms when raindrops are lifted into colder areas of a storm, freezing them into solid ice. Gensini compares the process to balancing a ping-pong ball with a hair dryer; a stronger updraft is needed to balance a larger object like a grapefruit. With rising temperatures, stronger storms create the updrafts that are necessary for hailstones to grow.
Additionally, warmer temperatures mean more water vapor in the atmosphere, which provides energy and moisture for stronger storms. The study predicts fewer severe hailstorms in the High Plains but an increase in larger hailstorms in regions like the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast.
Meteorologists have noticed similar shifts with other severe weather events, such as tornadoes, which are now more common in areas further east than their traditional locations. The research also highlights how growing populations in previously rural areas lead to more significant financial losses from hail damage.
Hail damage has become an increasingly costly issue in the U.S., with annual losses from severe storms and hail now in the billions of dollars. Gensini notes that the insurance industry is beginning to consider hail as a primary threat, as this year alone, insured losses from severe storms have reached around $60 billion.
While the study shows how hailstone size could increase in the future, there is still much to learn about the specific conditions that control hail formation. For example, researchers are studying the role of supercooled liquids and how they interact with particles to create ice crystals.
One major factor in hailstone growth is the amount of time they remain within a storm’s updraft. As hailstones rise and fall within the storm, they accumulate more layers of ice, giving them a rough, knobby texture. The longer they stay suspended, the larger they grow.
The largest hailstone on record in the U.S. fell in Vivian, South Dakota, on July 23, 2010. It measured eight inches in diameter and weighed 31 ounces. While scientists are still trying to determine the limits of hailstone size, some models suggest that they could grow as large as 10 inches in diameter, about the size of an NBA basketball.
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The study indicates that as hailstorms become more intense and frequent in certain regions, the financial impact of hail damage will continue to rise, especially as more people live in areas prone to severe storms.
