Both the Denver Broncos and the Atlanta Falcons are hoping to recover from their disheartening Week 10 losses when they play each other on Sunday.
Denver is 2.5 points ahead of Sunday’s game, thus the Broncos are the favorite according to sportsbooks. 44 points is the game’s over/under.
Note: To guarantee you receive the best odds, check lines closer to game time. Odds are based on the best value our analysts find as of publication.
NFL Week 11 Falcons vs. Broncos predictions and best bets
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Broncos under 23.5 total points:
-113 at FanDuel
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Bo Nix over 19.5 completions:
-115 at DraftKings
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Kyle Pitts over 44.5 receiving yards:
-110 at bet365
Only four times this season have the Broncos scored 23 points or more. Three of those occasions were against defenses that allowed the fewest points. The other occasion, rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler was starting for New Orleans, which is ninth-worst in that statistic.
The defense of the Falcons is in the below-average category, but it isn’t very strong. It looks to be a low-scoring game against a lackluster Broncos offense. Denver falls below 23.5 points as a result.
With just under 32 throw attempts per game on average over his last five games, rookie quarterback Bo Nix is beginning to create opportunities. Nix should be able to take advantage of an Atlanta team that gives up the highest completion percentage in the league (70.3%).
The Broncos’ secondary will be a difficult opponent for the Atlanta Falcons, who boast one of the league’s most effective passing offenses. But in the NFL, Denver has given up the sixth-most tight end receptions.
Expect Pitts to be well-fed on Sunday when London takes on Patrick Surtain and Darnell Mooney is dealing with an Achilles issue. Kirk Cousins is expected to provide him with plenty of yardage this week, as he has outperformed in five of his last six games.
NFL Week 11 Falcons vs. Broncos moneyline odds analysis
Why the Broncos could win as the favorite
The best odds at DraftKings are -180.
Many people are watching the Denver Broncos, who are just one blocked field goal away from upset Kansas City Chiefs. The squad has exceeded expectations, is 5-5, and is in the running for the playoffs despite having low expectations at the beginning of the season.
The defensive unit is the mainstay of this squad. Denver leads in average yards per play and fourth in points allowed. Because of their supremacy, the Broncos can suppress the opposition and win the game.
Although Nix’s development is encouraging, questions are still offensive. He has gotten better every week and ought to be able to contribute when needed in the passing game.
The apparent grasp that fellow rookie Audric Estime has on the starting running back position for the Broncos will provide for an intriguing plot. This offense may continue to develop its grind-it-out character with the help of the big bruiser, who can produce yardage.
The Broncos will have a 6-5 record if both offensive components are performing well versus Atlanta.
Why the Falcons could win as the underdog
The best odds at FanDuel are +168.
Many people have doubts about the Falcons going into Week 11, even though they are 6-4 and in first place in the NFC South. They will find it challenging to recover from their 20–17 setback to the New Orleans Saints when they travel to play the Broncos.
The team has displayed glimpses offensively, finishing in the top five in total yards per game. The Falcons have had trouble building on that output, though, as they are tied for 13th place in the NFL in terms of scoring.
In order to move this offense down the field, quarterback Kirk Cousins will need to figure out how to distribute the ball efficiently against a Denver secondary that has one of the best cornerbacks in the league in Surtain.
In order to win the fight of field position, it will be important to keep Nix out of rhythm. With a league-low nine sacks, the Falcons have struggled to create a pass rush, so their front seven will need to become better.
The Falcons are the overwhelming favorite if both the defense and the offense can improve their ability to complete drives. That’s easier said than done, though, particularly when driving in Mile High City.
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