How the powerful have fallen, my. NFL fans still can’t miss the Cowboys vs. 49ers primetime game, but this one feels far different from past encounters.
Before this Sunday Night Football game, the Cowboys are the more youthful and (slightly) healthier team. What transpired prior to their bye week and during their most recent visit to Levi’s Stadium may serve as further sources of motivation for them.
Before its week off, Detroit thrashed Dallas 47-9 at home on Jerry Jones’ 82nd birthday. The Fort-Worth metro area has been a circus ever since. Jerry Jones has criticized his head coach and demonstrated support for radio censorship. CeeDee Lamb was reprimanded by Troy Aikman for running the route carelessly.
The 49ers are in a world of pain, while the Cowboys seem to be in a world of chaos. Brandon Aiyuk is gone for the season due to a torn ACL, Christian McCaffrey is remains sidelined due to an Achilles injury, and Deebo Samuel was just admitted to the hospital due to pneumonia.
The Cowboys’ 42-10 Week 5 road loss to the 49ers (their worst loss ever to San Francisco) and the Detroit thumping are still fresh memories going into this Week 8 game, which heightens the suspense.
It’s an interesting NFL Week 8 handicap. Let’s move on to my NFL Week 8 predictions and top picks for the Cowboys vs. 49ers.
Cowboys vs. 49ers predictions and best bets for NFL Week 8
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Cowboys +5.5:
-110 at BetMGM
(1.50 units)
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Cowboys moneyline:
+210 at Caesars
(1 unit)
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49ers team total Under 24.5 points:
-135 at DraftKings
(.50 unit)
To be quite honest, even though I love the Cowboys, I almost never wager on them until they are winning.
Even though I’ve been against the Cowboys since the preseason, San Francisco seems to be in a terrible place right now. From the beginning, the 49ers have been plagued by the infamous Super Bowl hangover.
The Cowboys are suddenly up to 5.5 after I bet on them at +4.5 on Friday. The line crossed the crucial NFL betting number of 3, which is the most typical margin of victory, which is one of the reasons I bet the line at 4.5.
Since six is another crucial number when it comes to NFL betting, I would immediately bet on the Cowboys if this spread reached that level.
In addition to having the superior quarterback, the Cowboys are a healthier and more rested squad, and their defense just allowed 47 points. Their pride is wounded.
A game like this might also be heavily influenced by special teams. There, the Cowboys are in the lead. The 49ers will not have Jake Moody (ankle) again, and Brandon Aubrey is one of the greatest kickers in the league.
The Cowboys have a big advantage in field position as well, as the Associated Press notes. Following kickoffs, the 49ers are near the bottom of the league in field position, while the Cowboys are toward the top.
With Mike McCarthy’s history in these situations—12-5 after a week off and 3-1 following the bye with Dallas—I believe this is the ideal time to support a rested Cowboys squad.
Additionally, according to Teamrankings.com, Dallas has a 5-0 ATS record following a loss since 2022, covering by an NFL-best average of 14.5 points during that time. As well, I’ll wager a little on the Cowboys’ moneyline.
Christian McCaffrey, who is still a few weeks away from returning, is greatly missed in San Francisco. In the red zone, where he scored 21 touchdowns the previous season, McCaffrey’s absence is felt the most.
The 49ers, who led the league in red zone efficiency in 2023 (TD on 68% of red zone trips, according to Teamrankings.com), are now in 27th place this season (45.2%) without McCaffrey.
I like the 49ers under 24.5 points because of this (it has drastically changed from even money to -135 at DraftKings). This week, San Francisco wants to run first even more than usual. In the end, I don’t think the 49ers’ red-zone issues will improve with all of their ailments.
In addition to Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel is probably not going to be fully recovered, and Jauan Jennings is out. Without most of his weapons, Brock Purdy (17-for-31, 212 yards, 3 INT) looked quite unimpressive against the Chiefs. Overall, Purdy hasn’t performed well this season (9 TDs, 7 INTs, 59.8 QBR).
The Cowboys have the fifth-worst run defense in the league (143.2 ypg), and the 49ers want to run the ball. But this week’s equalization might come from Eric Kendricks’ return, a week of adjustment, and the disregard for the passing game.
Cowboys vs. 49ers moneyline odds analysis
Why the 49ers can win as the favorite
The best odds at DraftKings are -238.
Due to the Dallas defense’s poor play (28.0 points per game until the 31st) and the 49ers’ defense, which is still the team’s strongest asset, they can win this game.
The Cowboys’ NFL-worst rushing assault (77.2 ypg) should be easily stopped by San Francisco, which ranks 12th in the league in rushing defense (112.9 ypg).
Perhaps the league’s best linebacker is Fred Warner. He will make every effort to minimize the Dallas rushing game and tight end Jake Ferguson, the Cowboys’ second-best receiving option.
Jordan Mason has been more than capable of taking McCaffrey’s place offensively. If the 49ers can set the run early and control the pace, they will win this game. Purdy cannot be forced to try to make plays with a skeleton receiving corps if they fall behind.
The Cowboys will once again be without CB DaRon Bland (foot), DE DeMarcus Lawrence (foot), and All-Pro DE Micah Parsons (ankle).
Despite the 49ers’ struggles in the red zone, playing the Cowboys without some of their best defenders might be the cure-all. With TD allowed on 74% of opponent red-zone visits, Dallas ranks second-to-last in red zone defense.
Why the Cowboys can win as the underdog
Caesars has the best odds at +210.
Because it’s an away game, the Cowboys can win. Hold on, what? Yes, considering all the drama that has transpired in the last two weeks after their crushing defeat to Detroit, the Cowboys are most likely glad to be away from the Fort-Worth region.
The Cowboys lost that game 0–3 at home. In five home losses, Dallas has been outscored by 66 points. At Jerry’s World, teams have accumulated first downs at a startling rate.
Of course, that is an overly basic perspective. The Cowboys’ home opponents—the Saints, Ravens, and Lions—have outperformed their away opponents—the Browns, Giants, and Steelers.
Which division does this 49ers squad belong to? On Sunday night, the answer to that question will be revealed. San Francisco is currently likely on par with the Cowboys’ road opponents rather than, say, the Ravens or Lions.
If the Cowboys improve their offensive balance (34% running plays through the 31st) and take the lead early, they can win this game. In an attempt to improve the running game, Dalvin Cook was promoted from the practice squad for the first time this season.
Dak Prescott’s bad decisions in the red zone are mostly to blame for Dallas’ offensive difficulties. Dallas’ turnover margin is -6. Prescott’s six interceptions are nearly equal to his nine for the whole previous season.
The Cowboys have the second-worst red zone offense in the league (TD on 37.5% of trips), in part because of turnovers in that area.
If Prescott performs well and helps Dallas with their red-zone problems, the Cowboys can win. Compared to previous year, San Francisco’s defense has been a little more forgiving in that regard. The 49ers allow a touchdown on 61% of red zone trips (ranked 22nd) as opposed to 52% in 2023 (ranked 11th).
For the first time since a six-game victory streak from 1981–1990, the 49ers are attempting to defeat Dallas four games in a row. For Dallas, it is now or never. There is little chance that the Cowboys will defeat this 49ers team anytime soon.
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