On Sunday, September 22, 2024, in Tampa, Florida, Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) tries to score a touchdown during an NFL football game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.Peter Joneleit/AP Photo
One of the best quarterbacks to ever wear an Oregon Ducks uniform will try to pull off a second consecutive upset victory after winning his first NFL game in Week 3 against Tampa Bay. At MetLife Stadium, can Bo Nix defeat the New York Jets in Week 4?
Nix might not be scared of taking on one of the NFL’s top defenses while attempting to stay up with Aaron Rodgers after starting his professional career in the most difficult road environment at Seattle and then leading a stunning road victory over the Buccaneers. For NFL Week 4, we offer a thorough analysis of two highlighted Bo Nix player prop predictions.
Best Bo Nix player prop for Buccaneers vs. Broncos
Under 185.5 Passing Yards
The odds at DraftKings are -115.
The former Ducks star had the best game of his early career in Week 3 against Denver. As he was given favorable situations by a strong Broncos defense, Nix appeared composed and assured.
The strain on Nix was undoubtedly lessened because the Denver offense was not forced to play from behind. It was also a relief to play the Tampa Bay defense after opening the season against Pittsburgh and Seattle.
The Buccaneers are ranked 24th overall, but the Seahawks and Steelers both have pass defenses that are among the top 5 in the league. However, Nix now faces New York’s fourth-ranked pass defense after a little respite from tough opponents.
Working out against three of the best passing defenses can undoubtedly help Nix advance as a professional more quickly. With just Courtland Sutton as a dependable pass-catcher for the next three weeks, it will be challenging to defeat the Jets secondary for the time being.
Seattle restricted the 24-year-old quarterback to just 138 yards, despite his 246 yards against Pittsburgh. The Jets’ starting cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed are possibly the finest pair in the NFL, but the Seahawks may have the league’s top three cornerbacks.
Although the Steelers defense is excellent generally, we can get a better sense of how Nix might perform this week by looking at his performance versus the Seahawks secondary.
After three games, Reed has the tenth-highest CB grade on Pro Football Focus. Sutton’s PFF WR/CB matchup grade against the New York corners is 24.8, which is considered mediocre. Nix won’t be able to surpass the anticipated passing total on DraftKings if he can’t find his best wide receiver frequently this week.
Two of the three quarterbacks the Jets have held under 200 yards this season have done it in victories. With a 7.5-point advantage, New York won’t allow Nix to pull off a surprise like he did the week before. It’s not necessarily true to say that Denver’s future great quarterback can boost his stats while playing catch-up.
When playing from behind, Nix can’t successfully boost his numbers because the Broncos don’t currently have adequate weapons. The Jets should force numerous failed drives during the game since they will be ready for such a script.
Longer term, playing the Jets will benefit Nix as he attempts to hold out against another elite pass defense, but for the time being, statistical expectations must be adjusted against a strong foe.
Bonus Bo Nix player prop for Broncos vs. Jets
Anytime TD Scorer
Odds at FanDuel: +320
I also don’t think New York will totally shut out the Broncos. Nix has two rushing touchdowns to his name, while their 22nd-ranked running game has scored three. Although the 2023 First-Team All-Pac 12 selection lacks the running upside of a player like Jayden Daniels, he does show some decent running and scrambling skills.
Nix has the opportunity to become just the sixth quarterback in history to rush for a touchdown in three of his first four games this week. As we enter Week 4, many of us didn’t think he would be pursuing that kind of stat in the early stages of his career.
With lengthy runs of 20 yards or more in each game, Nix has already ran for 35 yards or more in two games. In certain crucial scenarios this week, the new Denver quarterback may decide to take off and run if he can’t locate open receivers. When the Broncos RBs are unreliable, Nix can be a threat to rush for a touchdown close to the goal line or to take off for a score from a little further out.
Although Nix’s passing ability will be limited in Week 4, he does show some promise as a runner.
Additional recommended props for Broncos vs. Jets
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Allen Lazard Anytime TD Scorer:
+320 at FanDuel
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Courtland Sutton Under 43.5 Receiving Yards:
–115 at DraftKings
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