He may be a point guard, but I’m not sure.
Scoot Henderson was in the middle of one of the most promising periods of a short career that had largely seen more lows than highs when a Western Conference scout whispered those words to me last week. Both the guard’s assists and scoring were up for the second-year Portland Trail Blazers. Most encouragingly, he has improved his field goal % and three-point shooting by almost 10 points compared to his career norms.
On January 14, against the Brooklyn Nets, he shot 8 of 10 from three-point range and scored a career-high 39 points.
That’s the best it’s ever been for Henderson, who will play at Charlotte on Friday for the 100th game of his brief career.
When I spoke to the scout, he seemed unconvinced.
This is his second NBA season, and you want to know what he’s hanging his hat on, even if the talent evaluator stated that the player is still very young. Where is the NBA talent that allows him to contribute consistently over the course of a season? And it hasn’t been decided yet.
“He’s not going to be a scoring point guard consistently,” a second scout informed me. You must improve the players who are on the court with you if he isn’t going to be that. He simply doesn’t.
We don’t need to go into too much detail about the Blazers’ financial commitment to Henderson or their reliance on him.
Instead of utilizing the choice to acquire veteran assistance, which would have pleased Damian Lillard, they selected him at No. 3 in 2023.
Henderson, who turns 21 early next month, will never receive a really fair verdict in this way. He is more well-known for his flaws than for his strengths.
He’s not Lillard. Victor Wembanyama is not him.
Despite his recent improvement, he has fallen far short of expectations and is a consolation prize for both.
The biggest factor separating the Blazers from being on the right track or the wrong one, though, is that their only top-three pick since Greg Odendoes doesn’t seem to be a star. This is because the team is still stuck in what frequently feels like a directionless rebuild, neither contending for the playoffs nor losing enough games to give themselves the best chance at a top pick.
I had conversations with six scouts and executives in the last few weeks. Individuals from the NBA who have observed Henderson during his two seasons with the now-defunct G League Ignite or while he was playing in the NBA.
Another Western Conference scout stated, “I may not be completely sold on him.” I believe he plays in the NBA. However, he was not at all what the Trail Blazers had hoped for.
“If you’re a lead guard and you can’t shoot, you have to be Rajon Rondo to have any chance,” the scout went on.
“When you are drafting in the top five or top three, at the very least, you want someone you can throw in a starting lineup in a competitive NBA game and he’ll contribute,” stated an Eastern Conference scout. Scoot is a long way from that. That’s a miss, then.
The Blazers would use some positive data to demonstrate Henderson’s progress. For instance, his three-point shooting % is on the rise.
Instead of playing at a full-out gallop all the time, he is beginning to understand when to use his speed and when to calm down and be more deliberate.
He exhibits playmaking moments that suggest progress.
On Thursday, as Orlando attempted a late rally, Henderson assessed his opponent and dribbled twice in the direction of the hoop before whipping a one-handed ball across his body to Jerami Grant on the other wing. The Blazers won the game after Grant’s three-pointer put an end to the Magic’s 8-0 run.
In an interview that aired on December 31, general manager Joe Cronin told Blazers announcer Kevin Calabro that, cumulatively, everything is beginning to come together. I believe that’s where we need to remember ourselves that, at the age of 20, he’s learning how to handle the most challenging position in this league.
An Eastern Conference executive who has scouted draft prospects for decades told me at the NBA Draft Combine in Chicago during the predraft process two years ago that he believed Henderson would at least be a good backup.
Even if the NBA is looking for good backup point guards, you’re looking for a star with the third pick.
This week, I made contact with the same front desk veteran. He claimed to have appreciated Henderson’s athleticism but to have some reservations about his shooting and his decision-making skills as a major NBA point guard. He seemed more focused about making baskets than improving his teammates, in my opinion.
Henderson has fallen short despite such reservations.
“I’ve been surprised by how much he’s struggled,” the executive remarked. Compared to his performance in Portland, I believed he would be a far better player.
What has gone wrong, then? Who is at fault? Did the coaching staff do a bad job of developing him, or did the Blazers just miss out on the draft pick?
The Ignite was recommended by several scouts, but it hasn’t worked well as an NBA training facility. Participants in that program were not regularly exposed to elite competition.
According to a source who is not affiliated with the Trail Blazers, he is currently receiving all of that. However, you’re on the job, which is the issue. You must be far more advanced than you have demonstrated to us.
When the Blazers selected Henderson, nobody in the NBA batted an eye. Prior to Charlotte selecting Brandon Miller, he was considered a possible No. 2 pick and was the consensus choice behind No. 1 pick Victor Wembanyama. There is no assurance that Amen Thompson, who is thriving in his second year in Houston, would have adjusted as well as he has in what has become a successful atmosphere even if they had selected him.
According to a scout for the Eastern Conference, you’re projecting. You get it right sometimes and wrong other times. Between 1 and 2, there was a significant decline, and between 2 and 3, I believe you could make a case. Brandon Miller is going to be a decent player, in my opinion.
Henderson was hailed as a top athlete going into the league. Though perhaps not quite on par with John Wall, Derrick Rose, and Russell Westbrook, they are similar.
In the NBA, it hasn’t translated.
According to one of the scouts, it’s fairly easy. In high school, you saw a student who was larger, stronger, and faster than everyone else. With all those qualities, he is now on a lot more even playing field after dominating with that. The lack of skill is obviously evident, but what’s even more worrisome is the absence of basketball IQ and feel, which are crucial for that role.
Another said: He is so talented that no one wanted to slow it down and give him the proper technique.
With the arrival of assistant coach Chris Fleming this season, who is collaborating closely with the guard, Henderson might now be receiving that instruction.
According to one assistant general manager, Henderson’s parallels to guys like Rose and Westbrook have always baffled him.
According to the scout, he has a terrific change of pace and plays with great speed. However, those men were a blur. He isn’t.
“He should be a monster on defense,” one of the scouts from the Eastern Conference said. Examine his physique. In an NBA game, he’s not exactly sure how to exploit his agility.
The Blazers are counting on Henderson to keep getting better. He has generated more games like this in the recent past.
Coach Chauncey Billups stated earlier this month that people don’t realize how difficult this league is. Being good is difficult. Getting here is difficult, and staying is even more so. And I have no idea how difficult it is to get famous. There are tiers in between. Therefore, he manages the roller coaster ride that he and I are on really well.
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The Blazers are on the clock, though. During the offseason and the trade deadline, they must make crucial roster selections. They will need to decide how much they are willing to pay Henderson and whether they want to extend his rookie deal in a subsequent year.
Their ability to proceed purposefully is further hampered by the uncertainty surrounding the player they believed would be at the core of their restoration.
The organization will be under much more pressure to succeed in the lottery in spring when they retry to locate the star Henderson was meant to be if he is destined to be just another role player.
Furthermore, that is by no means a guarantee, as has been demonstrated.
–Bill Oramis, The Oregonian/OregonLive’s sports columnist.
