Gil Kelley and Megan Horst
Horst teaches urban studies and planning at Portland State University as an affiliate professor. Kelley was Portland’s planning director before becoming a consultant in urban and strategic planning. In OSU PressToward Oregon 2050: Planning a Better Future, they are contributing writers.
One million more people might live in Oregon by 2050. The proportion of residents 65 and older will be higher. The size of households will keep decreasing. The proportion of young people of color will continue to rise.
That future gives Oregon’s current issues more significance. Given its current acute housing scarcity, how will Oregon handle that growth? How will residents of Oregon deal with the consequences of climate change, such as intense heat, flooding, and wildfires? How are we going to steer a changing economy? The most important question is: How can we involve Oregon’s youth in shaping the laws that will impact them?
As we search for big ideas, we may do this by referencing Oregon’s history of innovation. From the Beach and Bottle Bills to voting by mail and dying with dignity, Oregon has proven itself to be a true pioneer on a number of fronts. Our statewide land-use planning system, one of Oregon’s most enduring innovations, is the clearest example of that. Since its creation in 1973, our land-use system has promoted compact, walkable, and lively cities and towns, supported economic variety, preserved important habitat and scenic places, and conserved farm and forest resources. We are better off because, in contrast to many other states, we have stopped the unrelenting suburban sprawl.
However, there have been attempts to reverse some aspects of the system in response to an increase in homelessness and criticism from the business community. Some contend that the state’s land-use program no longer meets the most urgent demands of the present day, especially with relation to the provision of jobs and housing. On the contrary, we contend that the greatest approach for Oregon to remain faithful to its values and distinctive identity into the twenty-first century is to strengthen and revitalize the state’s planning objectives.
Our logic is straightforward: tackling climate change requires focusing growth within preexisting bounds and preserving small, walkable cities and towns. It is also the greatest strategy to guarantee a sufficient supply of reasonably priced homes in areas with established infrastructure and close proximity to local services, employment opportunities, and educational institutions. Whole communities with inexpensive housing and easy access to community centers, schools, and commercial services are rarely, if ever, the outcome of expanding urban expansion borders. In south Hillsboro, for instance, a recent growth led mostly to the construction of big single-family houses with limited rental or inexpensive housing options. Because such infrastructure is just too costly, residents are forced to drive in order to meet their daily necessities.
Instead of encouraging new housing and economic development outside of our current cities and towns, we will be strengthening them. According to Metro’s 2024 Urban Growth Report, there is potential for around 200,000 more dwellings within the current Urban Growth Boundary in the Portland metro area alone, including empty, redevelopable, and office-to-residential conversion sites. There is land available within current limits in cities and towns outside of the Portland metro area, ranging from Eugene to Ontario. Overall, the state’s current UGBs have more than enough space to accommodate the half million more housing units that would be required by 2045.
How do we begin, then? The following three audacious measures could be introduced during the upcoming legislative session:
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Focus development in existing cities and towns by declaring a 10-year moratorium on Urban Growth Boundary expansion – with very limited exceptions – and combine this with building on Gov. Tina Kotek s efforts to enhance infrastructure funding and direct subsidies for affordable housing. Intentional and creative public-private collaboration is necessary to build complete neighborhoods affordable to most Oregonians.
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Initiate a forward-looking state economic development strategy that reduces the focus on new land and instead uses existing industrial land and infrastructure more efficiently. Build upon existing economic strengths, such as university research.
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Add a new goal about climate action to the state s land-use planning laws, requiring cities and counties to address climate resilience and greenhouse gas emission reductions in their comprehensive plans. (California and Washington already do.)
Oregon has to think more broadly notwithstanding those developments. One way to encourage owners to develop their undeveloped property would be to impose a land-value tax. or creating a system that encourages shared house ownership and is backed by the state. To increase work possibilities throughout this developing Cascadia megaregion, high-speed rail might be invested in to link colleges and employment hubs between Eugene and Portland and Seattle and Vancouver, British Columbia.
Now that the 2025 Legislature is in session, let’s get Oregonians from all over the state involved and consider the broader picture. We have the power to mold it.
