By Ashley Bosa, a postdoctoral researcher at Boise State University’s Hazards and Climate Resilience Institute
You may experience a range of emotions and be confused when your mobile device alerts you to a wildfire.
If you look outside, you might not notice any smoke. Your neighbors on the other side of the street react differently: One is walking their dog slowly, another is packing a little suitcase in a composed manner, and a third seems like they are getting ready for a long vacation.
When you discover you don’t have your go bag ready, panic can set in even though the notice tells you to get it. You search the local emergency management website for advice and find out how many things you’ve forgotten, including vital records like birth certificates, an additional flashlight, your kids’ prescription drugs, and a phone charger.
A second notification, this time instructing you to evacuate, comes before you have time to collect your thoughts.
In the face of danger, packing the car, negotiating with kids or a nervous pet, and determining where to flee can all feel chaotic. You join a traffic bottleneck on your street as you pull away, with neighbors still loading their cars and a plume of black smoke billowing close.
This mayhem illustrates the worst-case situation for wildfire evacuations, which can lead to delays, increase evacuee hazards, and make it more difficult for rescue personnel to get to the scene. In order to prevent evacuation bottlenecks in the event of future disasters, academics like me who study natural hazards are creating strategies to assist communities in identifying areas where individuals may require the greatest assistance.
The importance of being prepared
Disasters frequently cause confusion, which emphasizes how important it is for people and communities to be ready.
Evacuation delays or failure to leave safely can have disastrous effects on persons attempting to escape as well as emergency managers and first responders attempting to handle the situation. Lack of readiness or indecision about when and how to respond are frequently the causes of these delays.
According to a 2009 study of survivors of a wildfire in the Australian state of Victoria that claimed 172 lives, two-thirds of the survivors said they had followed an existing disaster plan, but the majority of the deceased either couldn’t or didn’t follow one. Public alerts had been issued on the high risk of fire, and forecasters had warned that high temperatures with extremely low humidity were imminent.
The pace at which people react is strongly influenced by how they perceive threats and the environmental and social cues around them, such as the amount of smoke they observe, the decisions made by their neighbors, or the notification’s wording.
Previous disaster evacuation experience also matters. There are now more people living in fire-risk areas who have little to no experience with wildfires due to the rapid population growth in recent years in the wildland-urban interface zones where human development meets landscapes that are prone to wildfires. Additionally, mass evacuations are more challenging and time-consuming in wildland areas since there are typically fewer evacuation routes.
The fact that significant wildfires are happening in areas that have not historically experienced them and at times of the year that are often thought of as outside of the wildfire season further serves to complicate matters. Communities and emergency response teams are facing hitherto unheard-of difficulties as a result of this change, especially with regard to evacuations.
Computer models can help spot risks
Researchers are creating tools to assist communities in simulating how their citizens would react in the case of a disaster in order to solve these issues.
Depending on when the alert was given and how the fire spreads, the findings can assist emergency personnel in determining where bottlenecks are likely to form along evacuation routes. They can also assist fire management in determining which neighborhoods might require greater assistance with evacuation or quicker notification.
One of these projects is being worked on by my team at Boise State University’s Hazard and Climate Resilience Institute. In order to determine how residents of the wildland-urban interface regions view the hazards of wildfires and get ready for evacuations, we have been conducting surveys in communities throughout Idaho and Oregon.
We may gather household-level decision data from those surveys, including the evacuation routes these inhabitants would travel, the number of automobiles they intend to drive, and the evacuation destination.
We can also determine whether locals would be ready to go or if they would choose to stay and attempt to protect their house.
We can use that information to model how long it will take for emergency response teams to safely evacuate a whole town. Additionally, the models could indicate potential evacuation trouble spots and assist locals in understanding how to modify their evacuation preparations to ensure a safer escape for all.
Bridging the gap between awareness and action
Bridging the gap between awareness and action is one of the main objectives of this research.
Although many locals in regions that are vulnerable to wildfires are aware of the dangers, it can still be difficult to turn that awareness into practical preparedness. For instance, the gone bag notion is frequently misunderstood while being heavily advertised. It’s common to forget about necessities like prescription drugs, crucial papers, and pet supplies until it’s too late.
During wildfire emergencies, prompt and clear communication is particularly crucial. Ready, Set, Go! and other evacuation warning signals are intended to elicit certain behaviors, but their efficacy depends on inhabitants comprehending and having faith in the system. Mixed signals or delayed answers might lead to misunderstandings.
Being prepared is now essential as the possibility of wildfires increases in many communities. To find out what to expect and to sign up for alerts, consult your local emergency management agency. State and county-specific disaster announcements differ. Communities can lessen some of the most destructive effects of wildfires by being prepared.
— Ashley Bosa, postdoctoral researcher at Boise State University’s Hazards and Climate Resilience Institute
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