When the Terrapins travel the long distance to Autzen Stadium on Saturday, Oregon football will play Maryland for the first time.
With their first-ever No. 1 rating in the College Football Playoff, the Ducks are achieving unprecedented success. At the best online sportsbooks, Oregon is almost a three-touchdown favorite, and I have two wagers in mind for this weekend’s matchup with Maryland.
CFB Week 11 Maryland vs. Oregon predictions and best bets
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Oregon -25:
-110 odds at Fanatics
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Terrance Ferguson anytime TD scorer:
+110 odds at DraftKings
Note: To guarantee you receive the best odds, check lines closer to game time. Odds are based on the best value our analysts find as of publication.
According to TeamRankings, Oregon has been a bettor’s greatest buddy lately, covering the spread in four consecutive games. Maryland has only one cover in its last four games and is 1-2 against the spread when traveling.
Due to an injury sustained against Michigan, Tez Johnson, who leads Oregon’s wide receiver corps in catches, yards, and touchdowns, will miss a few games. With Johnson down, TE Terrance Ferguson’s output could increase since the Ducks have exceptional pass-catching depth.
Ferguson returned to action for UO last week after missing two games, and he came very close to scoring his first touchdown of the year. The senior’s 20-yard reception missed the goal line by one yard.
Maryland is visiting the Pacific time zone for the first time, and Big Ten teams have performed poorly on cross-country trips. Although they struggle against the pass, the Terrapins’ patchy defense is strong against the run.
Maryland has allowed 276 passing yards and 28 points per game because they haven’t put enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Ferguson will probably score a touchdown, and Oregon will probably reach the end zone frequently.
Billy Edwards Jr., quarterback for the Terrapins, has been outstanding. Edwards Jr. has four interceptions in the last three games, but Maryland is ninth in the country in passing yards per game.
Oregon might give up more points than normal when facing Maryland’s attack, which relies heavily on passes. I don’t think it will be sufficient, though, to keep the final result inside 25 points.
Maryland vs. Oregon moneyline odds analysis
Why Oregon could win as the favorite
BetMGM’s best odds are -3000.
After Johnson left early in last week’s game, wide receiver Traeshon Holden filled in, hauling in six passes for 149 yards. Evan Stewart, Oregon’s second-leading receiver, caught UO’s lone touchdown pass despite playing quietly against Michigan.
Kenyon Sadiq, Ferguson, and Justius Lowe combined for 111 yards and 10 catches. QB Dillon Gabriel will keep the offense running smoothly until Johnson returns, and Oregon boasts an incredible depth of pass-catchers.
Gabriel hasn’t been made to do all the heavy work by running backs Jordan James and Noah Whittington. The Ducks rank third in the Big Ten for rushing touchdowns and average 168 rushing yards.
Additionally, Oregon’s defense has been excellent. With 23 sacks, seven interceptions, and eight forced fumbles, the Ducks give up 16 points every game.
With a combined total of 10.5 sacks, DEs Matayo Uiagalelei and Jordan Burch have been invincible.
Why Maryland could win as the underdog
Bet365’s best odds are +1500.
When you play the top team in the country, there is virtually no room for error. To give the Terrapins a chance for an upset, Edwards Jr. needs to reduce the number of interceptions he makes.
Maryland’s defense, which gives up 36 points per game versus conference opponents, has been particularly poor. Both Michigan State and Northwestern, two of the Big Ten’s lowest-scoring teams, scored more than twenty-five points against the Terrapins.
Force turnovers are one area where Maryland’s defense has excelled. There are nine interceptions in the unit, and a few timely lessons learned would be quite beneficial.
The Terrapins’ offensive spark will come from wide receiver Tai Felton. Felton needs to have a tremendous game to assist equal Oregon’s score totals, as he currently ranks sixth in the FBS in receiving yards.
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