Former Oregon quarterbacks Justin Herbert and Bo Nix would be braced for Super Wild Card Weekend if the NFL playoffs started this weekend.
Herbert has his Los Angeles Chargers cruising with a 6-3 record after three straight wins. When the Chiefs blocked a field goal on the penultimate play last weekend, Nix and the Denver Broncos, who are 5-5, missed a huge upset victory over Kansas City.
NFL Week 11 is full of ups and downs, with the Chargers playing the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday Night Football and the Broncos playing the Atlanta Falcons. Let’s take a closer look at both quarterbacks’ performances because they will be crucial to the results.
These are our NFL Week 11 player prop selections for Justin Herbert and Bo Nix.
Note: To guarantee you receive the best odds, check lines closer to game time. Odds are based on the best value our analysts find as of publication.
Bo Nix passing yards over 210.5
At DraftKings Sportsbook and bet365 Sportsbook, the best odds are -110.
When examining NFL quarterback rankings for yards per pass attempt, Nix is located well down the list. Both at Oregon and in the NFL, Nix was not renowned for his downfield throwing.
Nix ranks 29th in the league with an average of 6.1 yards per attempt. He didn’t do well in that category in his first four games, but he has been getting better. He averaged 4.8 yards per attempt in those first four games. His average over the last six games is 7.0.
His passing yards per game have increased as a result. In his first four games, he averaged 165 yards per game; in his final six, he averaged 218 yards per game. In four of the previous five games, he has surpassed 210.5 passing yards.
The Falcons’ stout pass defense is not well-known. They have given up an average of 223.4 yards per game and at least 248 passing yards over the last three games.
We also like the value of Nix’s throwing touchdowns prop over 1.5 if you’re looking for something more juicy. DraftKings offers +140 odds, while bet365 offers +145 odds. In four of his last six games, Nix has thrown at least two touchdown passes.
Justin Herbert passing touchdowns under 1.5
The best odds are -148 at Caesars Sportsbook and -140 at bet365 Sportsbook.
You wouldn’t be incorrect if your first thought is to disparage the Cincinnati defense. The Bengals’ defense has repeatedly failed them in crucial games, possibly squandering quarterback Joe Burrow’s finest season.
But go a step farther and examine the output of the opposing quarterbacks during the previous five games. In two games against Cincinnati, Lamar Jackson of Baltimore, the front-runner for NFL MVP, has eight touchdown passes. The Bengals allowed a total of three touchdown passes in those two games.
The opponents in the four games were either unprepared to throw or didn’t want to throw more than was required. Herbert and the Chargers can help with that.
Jim Harbaugh, the team’s first-year coach, emphasizes a run-heavy strategy. That has occasionally hurt Herbert’s passing numbers, but Harbaugh is unconcerned. All he wants is to win. He believes that having a good defense and running game is the best winning recipe.
Returning by running Because J.K. Dobbins won’t be worn down, Gus Edwards’ return from injury last week will improve the running game.
Six out of nine games this season have seen Herbert throw fewer than two touchdown touchdowns. You can count on him to score a perfect score on Sunday Night Football.
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