Following victories over Purdue and Ohio State, Oregon is operating at its best right now. For the first time since 2012, the Ducks are ranked #1 in the Associated Press college football poll, and UO has the highest odds to win the Big Ten Championship (+125) according to BetMGM.
When Illinois comes to Autzen Stadium on Saturday afternoon, Oregon can improve its position in the conference rankings. Although the Fighting Illini are ranked 20th in the AP poll, the oddsmakers do not anticipate a competitive game.
Illinois vs. Oregon prediction and best bet
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Oregon -21.5:
-105 odds at FanDuel
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Evan Stewart anytime touchdown scorer:
-120 odds at DraftKings
The Ducks are my pick to close the gap and maintain their lead in the AP poll for one more week.
The Fighting Illini’s victories over Michigan and Nebraska were their best. Neither team’s offensive is quite as strong as Oregon’s.
The Ducks have dominated both on the ground and in the air, scoring more than thirty points in six consecutive games.
QB Dillon Gabriel has been incredibly effective, tossing several touchdowns in each game. WR Evan Stewart, WR Tez Johnson, and TE Terrance Ferguson are all excellent pass catchers that Gabriel can deliver the ball to.
Ferguson’s injury kept him out of last week’s game, and it’s uncertain if he will play versus Illinois.
With eight touchdowns and 102 yards per game, running back Jordan James has been an absolute force.
Although Illinois’ defense has been strong, it caused some concern when it let up 49 points to Purdue. Against every other FBS opponent, the Boilermakers only averaged nine points.
Oregon will win handily because the Fighting Illini’s offense will not be able to match the Ducks’ point total.
Stewart’s output has increased dramatically in recent years. The Memphis native has caught 11 passes for 245 yards and a touchdown in the last two games.
Stewart had only averaged 36 yards in the first five games. Stewart and Gabriel are developing a deadly bond, and I’m placing my money on Stewart to find the end zone.
Illinois vs. Oregon moneyline odds analysis
Why Oregon could win as the favorite
The best odds at DraftKings are -1450.
Oregon just defeated Purdue 35-0, recording its first road shutout since 1992.
The Ducks defense should put up another solid showing this week, and Illinois is in the bottom half of the Big Ten in both passing and running.
Illinois forced three turnovers and carried the ball 38 times for 187 yards in their most spectacular victory of the season against Michigan. Luke Altmyer, the quarterback, only completed nine passes for 80 yards.
The Ducks won’t be defeated by that recipe.
Gabriel’s touchdown-to-interception ratio is 15:4, and he is passing for slightly under 300 yards per game. The Ohio State defense, which is significantly better than Illinois’, allowed Oregon to score 32 points.
UO’s winning run at Autzen Stadium will reach 13 games if the Ducks continue to play well on both sides of the ball.
Why Illinois could win as the underdog
BetMGM’s best odds are +1000.
Among Big Ten teams, the Ducks have given up an average of 122 running yards per game. Nonetheless, Illinois should consider attacking this area.
Every week, the Fighting Illini gain 146 yards on the ground. Due to the season-ending injury to starting running back Kaden Feagin, Josh McCray and Aidan Laughery are taking over.
Altmyer can also gain yards with his feet, as evidenced by his 138 rushing yards this season. To stay ahead of Oregon, Illinois will need to be creative.
Despite being excellent against the pass, Oregon has only been put to the test once, against Ohio State. Altmyer has to replicate Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard’s outstanding performance against the Ducks.
Pressuring Gabriel is the last item on Illinois’ list of things to disturb. The best strategy to restrict the Ducks’ pass-catching playmakers is to make Gabriel uncomfortable. The Fighting Illini have 19 sacks.
Gabriel has only been sacked nine times and gets the ball out swiftly, so it’s easier said than done.
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