The path to a championship is rarely the simplest for the team with the top seed in the College Football Playoffs.
The Ducks were given the top seed, and Oregon was told its fate on Sunday. Oregon may need victories over Ohio State, Texas, and Georgia in order to get to the CFP championship game in Atlanta on January 20. Those are some of the most blue-blooded college football players.
To put it in perspective, Oregon (13-0) might need victories over Georgia No. 1, Ohio State No. 2, and Texas No. 4, the four teams that were in the AP Top 25’s preseason top four. Third place went to Oregon.
A first-round bye is the largest benefit of being the top seed. The Ducks are aware that they will play the first-round victor of Ohio State-Tennessee in the quarterfinals of the CFP on January 1 at the Rose Bowl.
If Oregon makes it through, it will go to the Cotton Bowl on Friday, January 10. The Peach Bowl winner will play the Ducks in the CFP semifinals, while Arizona State will play the winner of Texas-Clemson in the first round.
The Ducks may play No. 2 Georgia or No. 3 Boise State in the title game on Monday, January 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
Let’s examine each phase:
QUARTERFINALS (Rose Bowl): The Ducks are aware that Pasadena is their destination. They might play Tennessee (10-2), a club Oregon hasn’t played since 2013, or Ohio State (10-2)—a familiar opponent.
On October 12 in Eugene, Oregon defeated Ohio State 32-31. It was a close game that the Ducks won on a field goal from Atticus Sappington that was 19 yards out with 1:47 left.
Ohio State leads the series 9-2 after 11 meetings between the Ducks and Buckeyes. But in the previous two confrontations, Oregon has prevailed. This would be the third Rose Bowl between Oregon and Ohio State. The Buckeyes prevailed 10-7 in 1958 and 26-17 in 2010.
Before losing to rival Michigan 13–10 in the regular season finale, Ohio State looked to be on a collision to play Oregon in the Big Ten title game.
There is no guarantee that the Rose Bowl will feature one of its customary contests. This season, Tennessee was a tough out in the SEC. The Volunteers lost to Georgia and Arkansas, but their victories over Alabama and Oklahoma were their best.
With decisive victories in 2010 and 2013, Oregon is unbeaten in the Tennessee series.
SEMIFINALS (Cotton Bowl): Oklahoma will face No. 4 Arizona State (11-2), No. 5 Texas (11-2), or No. 12 Clemson (10-3) at the Cotton Bowl in Arlington, Texas, if it advances from the Rose Bowl.
Given that the Cotton Bowl will draw a sizable Longhorns fan base, Texas appears to be the worse opponent at first glance. This season, Texas has only lost twice, both to Georgia, ranked second. During their 2024 season, the Longhorns had six double-digit victories over SEC opponents, demonstrating their dominance at times.
After six meetings, the Longhorns have a 4-2 series advantage over Texas. The Ducks defeated them 30–7 in the 2013 Alamo Bowl, their most recent meeting.
If Arizona State wins the Peach Bowl, Oregon will face a former Pac-12 rival. After splitting the last four games, the Ducks are ahead 21-18 in the 39-game series. The Ducks crushed the Sun Devils 49–13 in Eugene in 2023, the final time Oregon and ASU played. They have never faced off in a bowl match.
In 2024, Arizona State has been a favorite among fans. After finishing just 3-9 in 2023, the Sun Devils won the Big 12 championship thanks to an incredible recovery headed by second-year coach Kenny Dillingham, a former offensive coordinator for the Ducks.
Arizona State won their last six games to secure a CFP berth, led by quarterback Sam Leavitt, a graduate of West Linn High. The Sun Devils crushed Iowa State 45-19 in one of the most outstanding conference championship game performances.
Oregon’s third Cotton Bowl choice is Clemson, ranked 12th. Tigers and Ducks have never faced each other. Of the three potential semifinal opponents, Clemson has the least remarkable record; their only victory was over SMU in the ACC championship game. The Tigers’ season-opening 34-3 loss against Georgia was one of their three losses.
CFP CHAMPIONSHIP (Atlanta): Georgia (11-2) is Oregon’s most likely opponent if they get this far. With No. 3 Boise State, No. 6 Penn State, No. 7 Notre Dame, No. 10 Indiana, and No. 11 SMU on their side of the bracket, the No. 2 Bulldogs had a much simpler path to the January 20 title game than Oregon.
This season, Oregon has faced two of the six teams that may make it to the championship game: Boise State (win 37-34 in Eugene) and Penn State (win 45-37 in the Big Ten championship game).
Let’s concentrate on a No. 1 vs. 2 showdown because there are so many possible opponents for the final game. Nobody will forget that the Bulldogs defeated Georgia 49-3 in Mercedes-Benz Stadium during Dan Lanning’s 2022 UO debut, the last time Oregon and Georgia played. Regarding Lanning, his former defensive coordinator, Georgia coach Kirby Smart stated: “He’s going to do a really good job at Oregon.” They will recover from this, and he is unrelenting. He is aware of our superior players. I admire his work, and even though he will never admit it, he knows we have better plays.
With two victories against Texas and a 31–17 victory over Tennessee, Georgia has a strong resume. The Bulldogs lost at Mississippi 28-10 and Alabama 41-34.
Boise State is the most desirable of the remaining options. In a fiercely contested game against the Ducks, where Oregon needed to score the game’s final 10 points to win 37-34, the Broncos only lost this season. Ashton Jeanty, a running back for the Broncos, is competing against Travis Hunter of Colorado for the Heisman Trophy, which is awarded to the best player in college football.
The contact information for Nick Daschel is 360-607-4824, [email protected], or @nickdaschel.
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